Posts Tagged ‘Housing Markeet’

The State of the Market and What Really Matters

Sunday, July 12th, 2009

by Francine Lichtman, Real Estate Sales Associate

We have a lot of good news out there right now.

image002Statistics tell us that 56% of New Jersey households can afford an entry level home. This is up from 44% just a year ago. The first-time homebuyers credit is definitely a factor here. The NJ Housing and Mortgage Financing Agency is offering a program that makes it easier for many residents to take advantage of this program. They will offer a “pre-fund” of $5,000 that will allow first-time homebuyers who make less than $120,000 to use the tax credit to cover closing costs, rather than having to wait to get the credit when they file their tax return next year.

Another piece of good news is that there is a measure before Congress to raise this credit to $15,000 and extend it to mid-2010. Right now, the deadline is December 31, 2009. In addition, there is a push for this to include ALL homebuyers and not just first-time. The importance of these incentives from the government cannot be underestimated.

Presently, there are 46 towns in New Jersey that have less than six months of inventory, which is the balance point below which home prices tend to stabilize or rise. The top performing 20 towns in New Jersey indicate that Maplewood is #16 with a 4.4 month supply of inventory. The only other Essex County towns are Glen Ridge with a 2.5 month supply, Cedar Grove with a 3.8 and Nutley at #15 with a 4.3 month. As a matter of interest, Chatham in Morris County ranks #10 with a 3.8 month supply of inventory.

Certainly, we will see continued economic challenges ahead, but one thing to remember is that the housing market leads the economy in and out of recession. There is a ray of light that is faintly visible to all who are watching closely. If the government programs continue and are even perhaps enhanced, we will begin the recovery in earnest before the year ends.

I often speak about the first-time homebuyer. My reasons for doing so are to remind everyone that all of the movement within our market begins with this group of consumers. When the first-time buyer makes a purchase, it allows that original first-time buyer to move up into their next home, and so on. This is what creates the demand for the homes that many of you own right now. It is a massive chain that needs to be in place for the housing market to be a healthy one.

Sell Now! Buy Now!

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

Why is it a wise decision to sell now or buy now?

We recently attended a conference presented by Jeffrey Otteau, a well known expert on the NJ housing market. Below is an overview of what we learned in combination with what we know being experts in our marketplace.

With hindsight, we realize that the economy began it’s contraction during the fourth quarter of 2007. This was the point in time when home sales really began to slow down and prices began to fall at a faster pace. Several things brought us to this point. From 2000-2005, NJ income rose 16% while housing costs rose 88%. This was very unhealthy, even though for the sellers, it was a party! As of the end of 2008, the pace of home sales had slowed by 50%. Right now, we are seeing home prices drop by 0.5% per month in our area. In other areas, they are dropping at a greater rate. The expectation is for them to hit bottom sometime during the second half of 2009 or early 2010. With this in mind, a buyer who is in the market right now not only has a wide choice of inventory and reasonable prices, they also have mortgage rates that are incredibly attractive! By later in 2009, these mortgage rates are expected to be history.

For a seller who is trying to decide whether to sell now or wait a year or two “until the market comes back,” here is Otteau’s projection:  If you wait, you will net 10% less than you will by selling today. The drop of 0.5% per month is expected to be in place for at least the rest of this year, followed by a lengthy flat period while the unsold inventory slowly sells off. This will keep home prices flat for the next two to three years. It is only after the inventory declines that we will see the beginning of a recovery. At that time, we will see an approximate increase in home prices of 3% per year. By 2014, prices will be back to where we are today!

Buy now! Sell now!

YOUR ASSIGNMENT

We are now at the beginning of the 2009 Spring market. There are many lovely and wonderfully priced homes coming on the market each week in all price points.

We would be happy to send you some listings if you are considering a move up, down or sideways!  If you have questions about your particular situation, please feel free to contact us for a confidential assessment of what a move would look like for you financially.

(646) 734-9077